Archive for March, 2005

Mar 31 2005

The Gartner Hype Cycle

Published by under Technology

There’s a good piece by V.C. Peter Gardner, head of telecomm investments at 3i, on the fabled Gartner Hype Cycle  and its applicability to contemporary technologies.

Gardner writes:

“The Gartner Hype Cycle, introduced back in 1995, has aided our understanding of the causes of business failures amongst early-stage technologies. Gartner explains how technologies are "hyped up" and appear to be far more developed, both in technology maturity and also market readiness, than they really are. One recent example from mobile communications markets is WAP, where there was an incredible amount of hype, which in reality the technology failed to match up to. Unified messaging also appeared to be a great idea, but it never convinced the IS managers. In both of these, the telecoms market misread the consumer demand. Both of these dived spectacularly into the Trough of Disillusionment and appear bound to stay there.

“VoIP on the other hand, which had a similar profile of being over-hyped and failing to deliver because of perceived quality problems, has now passed through the Trough of Disillusionment and is firmly on the Slope of Enlightenment and approaching the Plateau of Productivity. That is significantly helped by the emergence of broadband rather than dial-up as the consumer bearer.

“Yahoo! and Google are examples of high profile successes that fit the hype model well. Yahoo! floated towards the Peak of Expectations and was valued with a lot of hype. Then followed the slump of 2001 and 2002. Businesses like Yahoo! and Amazon.com have now emerged as successful and profitable businesses maturing towards the Plateau of Productivity, enabling Google to have its value recognised.”

I’d link to the piece, but it is locked behind the costwall. Total Telecom is a UK pub at www.totaltele.com.

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Mar 22 2005

PCWorld.com – Google Removing Agence France Presse From Google News

Published by under Journalism

PCWorld.com – Google Removing Agence France Presse From Google News

 

I thought Google would at least drag their feet on this one, but they rolled over immediately.

AGF held the gun to their own head on this lawsuit. 

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Mar 22 2005

FT.com adding a whopping 443 paid subscribers per month

Published by under General

PaidContent.org "And a factoid on FT.com: The Financial Times has 76,000 subscribers to its site, and that total is growing at roughly a 7 percent annual rate, according to the company."

Wow. All of 443 new paid users per month? Why bother? No wonder the FT is consigned to the giveaway bin at the Delta Shuttle.  

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Mar 22 2005

IGN being shopped for $600-$800mm

Published by under General

IGN – host of the vgame sites Gamespy, IGN and TeamXbox is being shopped by Shearson-Lehmann for $600 to $800 according to the WSJ.

5.3 million monthly uniques to Gamespy in a market where the $9.9 bn annual spend beats the movies. The Journal only cites Gamespy’s traffic, which would value the deal at $133 per unique. This continues to be the season of Internet Search and Content M&A.

 

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Mar 20 2005

AFP Suing Google News for $17.5 Million

Published by under Journalism

Boersenreport.de – AFP Suing Google News for $17.5 Million

Call me dense, but why would a news organization sue Google News? This is the second time in a week that Google News has been painted as an evil leech.

 AGF is a corporate-level subscription service and is peeved that Google is scraping their headlines, leads, and thumbnailing photos. But in the end, if AGF puts their news onto the web, where is the harm in pointing traffic at it? If Google framed the clickthrough and sold adjacent space, sure, call in the lawyers, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. Why wouldn’t fair-use come into play here and AGF benefit from the exposure and the potential subscription?

Last week a publisher of a b2b title asked me how I felt about Google eating into his revenue. This same publisher’s parent company has a policy against deep-linking, apparently because a competitor was bypassing the registration system and sending its users deep into their archives.

I don’t know why the news industry sees Google as the enemy. Someone please enlighten me. Beyond that, it all seems to come down to fair-use law.

 

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Mar 19 2005

Digressionary Print Formats

Published by under General,Journalism

The cover story of the current issue of the Atlantic Monthly is by David Foster Wallace on the subject of talk radio. I enjoyed the piece, and as always Wallace’s great writing but I’d like to draw attention to the design of the article, specfically the use of sidenotes to accomodate and encourage Wallace’s penchant for digressions, footnote, and asides.

The best way to understand the design of the piece is to buy a copy of the magazine. A PDF is available online to subscribers, but the online version has some elements that try, but don’t truly express the concept.

"[Editor's Note: In the print version of this article additional commentary from the author appears alongside the main text. (Subscribers may scroll down this page for a link to an Adobe PDF version of the article.) In the version below, click the phrases within the colored boxes to read the commentary.]"

 

The text of the article is occasionally highlighted in colors — think of the highlighter function in Microsoft Word — which signifies that the reader should look to the side of the main text for the appropriately colored box which contains a side note. Each color denotes a different type of sidenote. A footnote may be yellow, an editorial note blue, etc.

Wallace is a master of digression, a writer similar to Thomas Pynchon in his love with spiralling detours down the path of minutia, paths which can either lead the reader to despair of ever picking up the main narrative, or delight them if their taste in detail and complexity follow the author’s. In Infinite Jest, Wallace’s sprawling novel about tennis and Alcoholics Anonymous, he resorts to footnotes, a serious irritation to a reader who must flip to the end-notes to follow along. Thankfully, Wallace just keeps advancing the footnote counter through the entire novel, rather than following the academic practice of resetting the counter every chapter which forces the reader to seek the chapter’s section of footnotes, and then to that chapter’s specific note.

The practice of running footnotes right at the foot of the main text is more convenient, but nevertheless forces the reader to drop the narrative, move to the tiny type, and then return to where they left off.

What the Atlantic Monthly accomplishes is a very elegant solution to page design — one of the more innovative advances in print I’ve seen in some time and the best solution for hypertext concepts I have seen in print.  The "ergonomics" work well, the notes are easier to access due to their formatting adjacent to the main point, and there are no tiny superscript numbers cluttering the text. The colored highlights break the text snake of the mainbar like highway signs, making departure and return simple.

There are a lot of solutions to the problem of accomodating digressionary content. Hover balloons, IntelliText advertising, or good old fashioned hyperlinks can all accomplish the job online. The Atlantic has presented a print solution which could, if adapted, be a very elegant model for online design. 

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Mar 15 2005

Minor Irritations are turning into a Major Force

Published by under General

Today’s NYT has a front page piece on  people rebelling against life’s little irritations — Starbuck’s having the conceit to call a medium-sized cup of coffee a "Grande", annoyed users turning to Bugmenot.com to get user names and passwords for registration-walled websites, people returning postage-paid junk mail envelopes to sender filled with pieces of scrap metal to drive up the postage costs.

In an article I wrote for CMO Magazine last fall on the after-effects of the national Do Not Call registry which effectively ended telemarketing, I quoted Seth Godin on the concept of permission marketing and the growing sense of irritability among consumers over intrusions by clueless marketers. He predicts a future where consumers will be induced to listen to a pitch or receive a spam in return for some reward.

My sense is that consumers are at a boiling point due to unrelenting assaults by spam, phishing, identity theft, pop-ups, page-takeovers, registration-walls, that a vocal minority will begin to fight back in ugly ways. I was unaware that Slashdot once posted the address of a notorious spammer and urged its hordes to overwhelm him with junk mail, bogus subscription offers, etc..

This leads me to postulates Churbuck’s First Rule of Online Media: Don’t piss off your traffic. Every aspect of online operations, design, and commercialization needs to be analyzed in the context of this commandment.  Any violation of the law will surely result in a fast sweve by the traffic to a more friendly alternative.

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Mar 15 2005

State of Online News

Published by under General

Online: Introduction

The Center for Excellence in Journalism has released its annual state of journalism report. This is a link to the online section which points out, correctly, that while the trend is the friend for online growth, the lack of a viable economic model with the margins seen historically on the old media side is limiting spending and development despite the ad renaissance. 

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Mar 12 2005

Online Publishers Association: Paid Content Sales Rise in 2004

Published by under General

Online Publishers Association: Press Releases

The news here is the decline in the sale of business/investment content — down 6.3% from 2003. Bear market? Beardstown Ladies out of the market? Not likely. More plausible is the general realization by consumers that little business/investment content is truly unique and if not available from one source, can be located elsewhere.

 Research is up 6% but still a relatively small market at $115.1 million.

 Here’s the list of what I pay for:

  • Accuweather Premium: because I am a weather freak
  • WSJ.com: because I always have and probably always will.
  • Highbeam Research: because I need good research capabilities for my freelance writing
  • Vault.com: because I’m looking for a job and need access to employer profiles
  • Mediabistro: because I freelance and need access to a marketplace for assignments
  • Morningstar: because I do a lot of mutual fund related freelancing and need access to premium level research (and which I just cancelled).

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Mar 12 2005

The Surveillance Society

Published by under Weird

Drivers charged in plow scheme (March 12, 2005)

This rocket scientist driving a snow plow had to carry a GPS equipped phone so the state highway department could track his whereabouts. What does he do? Ditch the phone in a paper bag at a coffee shop while he does a private plowing gig at a nursing home, return, and gets nailed by the state police. 

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Mar 12 2005

Internet Ad Spending Numbers

Published by under Journalism

TNS Media Intelligence

Numbers released earlier this week show a 21% gain in Internet advertising from 2003 to 2004. Placing the category sixth — after a steep fall off behind cable TV — at $7.4 billion.

 Although elections and the Olympics helped the surge, the general comeback of ad spending and the nearly 10 percent increase is directly correlated to the economy stabilizing out of its two-years of softness from 2001 through 2004.

 The big issue is sustainability and how the next business cycle will affect advertising allocations from the Big Five of newspapers ($24.5 bn), network television ($22.5 bn), consumer mags ($21.2 bn), spot tv ($17.3 bn) and cable ($14.2 bn).

 Given Google’s report that it did $1 billion in ad sales — I infer from Adsense — in Q4 2004, and extrapolating a ramp up across 2004 to $3 billion for the year, I wonder if ad word sales constitute the majority of the Internet spend as opposed to ad units and sponsorships sold directly by site ad sales staffs.

Some breakouts of the Internet ad spend are needed. The category is big enough and credible enough to deserve more parsing. 

 

 

 

 

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Mar 11 2005

Digital Deliverance: The Digital Edition Dirigibles

Published by under Journalism

Digital Deliverance: The Digital Edition Dirigibles

 

A good piece on why PDF-based publications stink and are the Zeppelins of our age.  

 

While I am at it, does anyone think Zinio is a good idea? I subscribe to the MIT Tech review via the format and honestly think the technology is rotten. Hard to believe anyone is serious about preserving print design in a digital format.

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Mar 11 2005

Ray Ozzie goes to MSFT

Published by under General

Not too surprising to see Microsoft acquire Groove Networks — Microsoft was an investor in Ray Ozzie’s p2p project — and it makes sense to see Ray ascend to the triumverate of CTOs. Ozzie’s invention of Lotus Notes was hailed, justifiably, as a great leap forward and created the new category of "Groupware."

I hate Lotus Notes. I loathe it. I think, all other things being equal, if I had to chose between working at two companies — one running Notes, the other running Microsoft Exchange — I would go with the Exchange environment every day.

Notes was the ugliest, most user-unfriendly application I’ve ever endured. This is not surprising given Lotus’ brain-dead approach to user-interfaces in the early 90s, when CCMail — it’s evil email client — had icons that were drawn by participants in a split-brain experiment.

Don’t take my word for it. Notes sucks. 

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Mar 11 2005

Google News Customization

Published by under General

In my morning crawl of the news sites I see that Google News — the perdurable beta news aggregator — has initiated a customization function.  It seems a little more useful and less inbox-crushing than the old model of email alerts off of keywords. In the end, it’s just an old "My Yahoo" customization tool driven by keywords.

 

 

 

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Mar 09 2005

How to trap an MBA

Published by under Weird

Top News Article | Reuters.com: 119 Would-be Harvard Biz-School Applicants Dinged for Peeking

This would be a perfect sting operation if an MBA program wanted to prove its devotion to teaching business ethics (one of the world’s better oxymorons). I love the quote from the guy at Duke’s MBA program (how does one pronounce the word "Fuqua?" "Phuq-yeah?") who said the lone moron who went trolling shouldn’t be investing in any Duke sweatshirts.

 

 

 

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Mar 02 2005

The Tenth Anniversary of Reel-Time

Published by under General

David Churbuck’s Reel-Time FLog » Blog Archive » The Tenth Anniversary of Reel-Time

"In the beginning was the name Real-Time. It was to be the name of an online news project to be run by me and funded by Mitch Kapor, the founder of Lotus. Mitch was my Internet mentor in the early 90s when I was a technology reporter for Forbes Magazine. He had the first commercial net connection in the state — a T1 line from his Cambridgeport office to Software Tool and Die, the first commercial ISP which was based in Brookline. Mitch invited me to his office and showed me some of the pre-Web Internet technologies such as WAIS, Veronica, Archie, Gopher and USENET. I had been an online community geek beginning in the mid-80s, had really first experienced the first community at a Grateful Dead BBS called "Brokedown Palace" where Deadheads posted lists of their bootleg collections and arranged trades of 90-minute Maxell tapes. That led to the WELL, the first big online community based in Sausalito, California  …"

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Mar 02 2005

The State of Paid Research

Published by under General

  I won’t boil the ocean of information economics and attempt a trenchant analysis of paid vs. free content, but a confluence of factors points to a disruption in the historical model of tucking value behind a so-called “cost-wall.”

I see three constituents in the market:

·        End-user recipients seeking answers and knowledge through two channels – online delivery or physical access to printed material.

·        Librarians and professional researchers who, for a fee, perform those searches.

·        Owners and aggregators who compile and store the information.

 
This essay was inspired by my experiences with Highbeam – a web-based, free-to-fee service that provides access to thousand of print sources for a flat annual or monthly fee. In an earlier blog post, I rhetorically asked the provocative question: will Highbeam “nuke” Factiva, the joint-venture between Reuters and Dow Jones that also provides access to a large database of print sources via an annual membership and a per-article charge of $2.95. My experiences with both products, and my experience with flat-fee subscriptions vs. micro-payments, or per-article schemes, led me to the conclusion that Factiva’s model was seriously challenged by Highbeam’s.

Executives from both companies weighed in with comments. Patrick Spain, the founder of Highbeam, notes that the market for paid-research is ripe for disruption as individual users are seeking research via a direct model, whereas Factiva has traditionally sold to enterprises, selling seats to volume-buyers (corporate librarians) who in turn distribute them to end-users.  Factiva, which does offer a tiered subscription system, countered that it is competitive with Highbeam’s offering, and further, offers higher functionality and better data sources.

 
Both companies negotiate, license, and aggregate libraries of articles from the original content creators – the publishers who pay to report, edit, and publish the source material. These include trade journals, newspapers, magazines, and the usual spectrum of professional content which is usually tucked behind a “cost-wall” on the publisher’s website. These archives are valuable assets and are treated as such. While I have no insights into the profitability of a typical newspaper’s archives, I can speculate that direct article sales and licenses to commercial online database such as Highbeam, Factiva, Lexis-Nexis, constitute a nice annuity that publishers can be expected to defend against the “Information Wants to Be Free” barbarians and CopyLeftists.

 
Archives and paid-research are under increasing assault by the masses that have been conditioned by search engines to expect instant gratification from their search requests. From the early days of Brewster Kahle — WAIS and Gopher to the present state of Google, the digitization of libraries, and paid-search services — there has been an inexorable march to take librarians and gatekeepers out of the equation. They don’t like this very much, and argue, sometimes with great credibility, that it takes an information professional to a) perform an efficient search, b) distinguish between the validity of sources, and c) rank-order results in terms of relevance.

 
In corporate environments where unrestricted searching can rack up massive charges, having a gatekeeper makes perfect sense. I can recall instances where reporters at PC Week incurred nasty bills from MCI via its early online research services. And with some commercial databases extracting very expensive pounds of flesh per citation downloaded, it makes sense to put someone who has a clue about what they are doing be in control of the search process.

 
I don’t think high-priced commercial databases are doomed. The more esoteric and technical the information, the less appealing it is to the unwashed Google-masses. The middle-market — for solo “knowledge workers” attempting to save themselves an expensive and inefficient trip to the library — is where Highbeam is going to strike gold … if, and only if, there are enough freelancers like myself with heavy research needs. Factiva? I predict a revision of their model to become more friendly to the individual subscriber. With their business at about $245 million annually in 2003 (according to Hoover’s http://www.hoovers.com/factiva/–ID__59927–/free-co-factsheet.xhtml),  a slight decline from an estimated peak of $250 million in 2001. They aren’t exactly huge, nor are they on a steep growth trajectory. Matching Highbeam with a flat-fee offering to independent researchers could (if they can figure out how not to croak their corporate base) put them back on top with individual reseachers.

 
While I may rail against walled-garden models and how they doom their builders to irrelevance, I can’t safely predict that they’ll come down under pressure from free and flat-fee search. I do think newspapers are fooling themselves with registration requirements, and further I am very dissatisfied by publishers who at the very least can’t distinguish a paid-print subscriber and grant that person unrestricted archive access. New York Times are you listening?

 

Price Comparison – Highbeam vs. Factiva

 
First, let’s look at Factiva’s Individual Subscription model and compare it to Highbeam’s.

 
Factiva: $69 a year for an annual subscription. This doesn’t give the subscriber any searches. Just the price of entry. That comes out to about $5.83 a month. On the surface, Factiva would appear to be a big bargain compared to Highbeam’s $100 annual fee (or monthly $20). But that’s all you can search, full-text.

 
Because I paid Highbeam a monthly fee of $20 per month, lets compare Factiva at $5.83 and what you get is (I assume as I am unwilling to pay Factiva for the test) an account with a password and the right to start searching. (Factiva’s Individual Subscription does not offer a monthly option. It should, with automatic renewal until the subscriber tells them stop.)

 
Let me first define what I mean by a “search” – that’s a keyword(s) query that results in a search result page (SRP) where the results are then opened to their ultimate full-text form. Not just headlines, not headlines and first paragraphs, not executive summaries. The full enchilada taken all the way to full text and ultimately, export to local storage or import into an app like Microsoft Word.

 
Factiva also has some lesser charges. Here they are:

 Full text article, picture or PDF – US$2.95;
 Keywords in Context – US$0.75;
 Full article/report plus indexing – US$2.95;
 Headline, Lead Paragraph and Indexing – US$0.75;
 Custom Format with Lead Paragraph – US$0.75, each charge being per article/document, with the charge being incurred on opening the relevant document.

That puts a little more hair on the deal.

Here’s where Factiva’s economics fall apart for me. While they win the monthly subscription price war hand’s down — Factiva is $6 a month and Highbeam is $20 –  I can open, print, mutilate, spindle and fold as many Highbeam articles as I want for my $20 at Highbeam. Every one I open at Factiva causes the meter to advance $2.95.

 
That means five opened articles on Factiva and I’m paying more than I would for an infinite number of articles at Highbeam.

 
Or does it? A little snooping around on Factiva led me to the discovery of another tier, called iWorks. Here’s the skinny on that:

”Factiva iWorks Individual Subscription Pricing is available via registration in Microsoft Office 2003. Individuals can access Factiva iWorks at a cost of $9.95 for 10 articles per month, or for $2.95 per article (prices listed and charged in USD). After entering a query, unregistered users will get headline results and will be prompted to register when they select a headline. “

So there is a cheaper tier of service priced at $9.95 a month for 10 articles at Factiva. That is waaaay cheaper than Highbeam at $20 for the same 10 articles.

If I stop at ten articles.

Okay. So the “Individual” account at Factiva is obviously not for me. iWorks — to go back to some research I recently performed on railroad gauges — would have worked for the first ten articles, but would have turned expensive very quickly for every one beyond that quota. The search ostensibly would have cost me $59 at Factiva under the Individual plan. Google would have failed out of the gate because it has a bad filter and is stupid in its own endearing way.

 

The Market

 
What are the bigger market dynamics at play here? Factiva is a classic market defender and Highbeam is the attacker. Factiva is defending its market for selling excellent research to companies. Highbeam sells it to individuals like me who need corporate level resources. 

 
Google is already eating at the fringes the old world of professional, expensive research, and Highbeam is moving onto dinner. Of course someone could undercut Highbeam too, but I don’t see a lot of wiggle room in negotiating archive licenses from the publishers.

 
Patrick Spain came up two good insights based on his experience at Hoovers. The “occasional” user wants to know something. So show them something. If they want more, charge ‘em. But don’t just charge ‘em for that piece of information, charge them for the right to see ALL the information..

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Mar 02 2005

Hey Now: Closet Deadhead launches

Published by under Weird

Closet Deadhead: Closet Deadhead

Sam Whitmore launches a podcast for the Deadheads lurking among us. Finally, a use for those racks and racks of bootlegs …

Me, I’ve been out of that closet since Colt Park ’76 

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Mar 02 2005

Jim Citrin on Media Execs

Published by under Journalism

Online Extra: Memo to Today’s Media Execs

 

This from BusinessWeek online — a Q&A with Spencer Stuart’s Jim Citrin on what it takes to maker it to the top in the media business. Upshot …

" Don’t try to become a "mogul." The business today is far too complex and interdependent for one person to make all the decisions and wield all the influence."

 

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Mar 01 2005

Bye-bye, Nando — a piece of Internet history

Published by under Journalism

Bye-bye, Nando — a piece of Internet history This is the season for a lot of tenth anniversaries for online journalism. 1995 was when the first serious HTML based news services launched — Pathfinder (I think HotWired was out in late 94), WSJ, Forbes, and one of the granddaddies of online news — NANDO.

 

Steve Yelvington writes:

"Over time, Nando evolved into the first serious, professional news site on the World Wide Web — long before CNN, MSNBC and other followers — and one of the nation’s first commercial dialup Internet services providers. When the McClatchy Co. bought the News and Observer in 1995, Nando’s Internet savvy was thought to be a major factor (although the newspaper itself turned out to be a very smart buy)."

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