Oct 25 2012
I am not a meteorologist, but I know enough to scare myself and as soon as it's a decent hour I'm calling Peck's Boats to beg for a pull out on Friday or Saturday ahead of Hurricane Sandy.
Couple of factors have me spooked. First, this is a late season storm driving due north into the warmest North Atlantic in modern record keeping. According to my yachting associate Charles Barthold, water temperatures are 5+ degrees higher than normal around the Northeast and warm water is the energy source for storm systems. Second, there is a big low pressure system moving east to meet Sandy from the midwest. This looks like it will "grab" the storm and pull it back towards the northeast, hooking it onto Cape Cod in a classic northeaster scenario. This is, indeed, a repeat of the "Perfect Storm" scenario that whacked the Cape on Halloween, 1991. I remember that storm and it was a pisser.
The CMC OZ model below (click through to animate it - press the "+1" button to step through it) gives a good predictive illustration of the button-hook maneuver Sandy could pull on the Northeast. This is one of a dozen models, so take it for what it is, but it gives an idea of the weird way this storm could behave at the last second.
I am normally not a believer in the wisdom of the crowds, but the discussions at storm2k.org are very informative and give a good range of random weather geeks' opinions.
So the plan is to get out NYC today around noon, use tomorrow to strip sails, dodgers and other random parts and pieces and begin to assume that Peck's can't get me out in time, in which case I'll trust to my mooring which saw me through Irene in 2011.